With General Petraeus set to give his update either September 11 or 12, I think this is the appropriate time to figure out what is going to happen before it happens (yes, I have special powers and no I cannot walk through walls).
Petraeus will tell the whole truth and nothing but the truth to the senators who, if their good friend Sylvester Reyes is any indication, have no idea what is going on anywhere, much less in Iraq. Some of the highlights of the report will be that there are less killings of coalition forces and innocent Iraqis. Furthermore, our forces have taken control of many places where people were saying there was no hope just months ago. We have also increased the destructions we have wrought upon al Qaeda and the Shiite militias who are being backed by Iran. Who knows, maybe this will be the place where Petraeus informs the senate that an attack on Iran is under place, we can hope (not a prediction).
The democrats will be their normal j-hole selves. If only they would allow us to treat prisoners the way they are going to treat General Petraeus. They will probably focus on the political side of the equation. Unfortunately, they have somewhat of a leg to stand on this one because there are serious problems regarding the governing of this fledgling democracy. But when has this not happened to a fledgling democracy? After we declared our independence from Britain in 1776 we had to wait 13 years before Washington became president. This is like a world class runner laughing at a two year old for not being able to keep up.
If the libs are smart they will try to inflate the readiness of the Iraqi army and police force. This is the only legitimate way I can foresee them being able to pull a fast one over the American populace at large. For if there is the perception that the Iraqis have a handle on the violence over there our reason for staying becomes less necessary. It is also possible that the democrats may try to make the whole situation in Iraq look helpless but I do not think they want to be branded surrender-monkeys for another war.
They have a choice about how to frame their support of an exit but their is no doubt they will continue to agitate for surrender after the report is delivered. I think one of the presidential candidates for their side already has the roads picked out for the retreat. So they will either want retreat because the job is done or because it is hopeless. They will argue for the former because that seems less spineless than they really are.
Fortunately, I do not think Bush will even listen to the twittering senators. Why should he? The full force of the surge just got under way, we have switched tactics that have proven to keep insurgents out of their strongholds, and the Iraqis are beginning to turn on the insurgents for paltry reasons such as being forced to eat their own children or having tribal elders murdered for not toeing the line. We need to win this war because it will help stabilize a region that hasn’t been stable for, well, forever.
There will definitely be opposition to Bush wanting to continue the fight either because the job is already done or because it can’t be done. The fight will go on though. Bush has nothing to lose and everything to gain from trying to win. In fact this war will decide whether we will defeat them this generation or be defeated by them in three. BigT
That’s the case in capitalism at least. I do not know when the notion that capitalism was suppose to produce the “right” result every time came about. Capitalism has nothing to do with making companies profitable. What capitalism does is punish failure and reward success.
Over the years I have heard earnest news men and women breathlessly explain the latest so-called market failure. The subprime market fallout is a “market failure.” The tech bubble was a “market failure.” I’m sorry, but these people who say those things are morons.
Laissez Faire capitalism is predicated on the notion that as long as the government keeps its hands to itself the economy will right itself and become stronger because the bad seeds have died off. Think of it another way.
Our economy is a Hummer and the “invisible hand” is the driver. Ridding along in this massive vehicle is every producer and consumer in our economy telling the driver where he should be going, how fast he should be driving, and everything else kids say on road trips. The “invisible hand,” you and me and everyone else in our economy, knows where he is going as long as he has the freedom to take all our information and just drive.
Whenever someone comes up with a stupid idea or invests in a risky and doomed investment the driver will ignore that idea (reducing profits) and in some cases pull over to scold or let out (bankruptcy) the idiotic passenger. Whenever someone comes up with a great idea about where our Hummer is suppose to go the driver will invite that person or company up to the front seat (S&P 500 companies, for example).
Because this system is so successful people have gotten the idea that for capitalism to work everyone must have success. What capitalism does best, however, is punish those who hurt our driving experience and rewards those who improve it. BigT
One thing you have to learn about economics and, probably more accurately, the reporting of economic activity is that it is never right when it is first reported and that no matter what the economic data it will always be the case that the poor, minorities, and women will be hardest hit. Curiously enough it seems to usually be the case that good economic indicators are being revised upwards and bad economic indicators are being revised downwards during the Bush administration’s tenure. Coincidence?
An article from the Wall Street Journal summarizes the revised data this way:
Positive Revisions:
GDP growth revised from 3.4% to 4.0%
Profits after taxes increased 5.4%
Increase in business inventories revised from $3.6 billion to $5.4 billion
Export growth revised from 6.4% to 7.6%
Import decline revised from 2.6% to 3.2%
Business spending increase revised from 8.1% to 11.1%
Consumer spending increase revised from 1.3% to 1.4%
Durable-goods purchase increase revised from 1.6% to 1.7%
Real final sales of domestic product revised from 3.2% to 3.7%
Federal Government spending increase revised from 6.7% to 5.9%
price index for personal consumption revised from 4.3% to 4.2%
PCE excluding food and energy revised from 1.4% to 1.3%
Price index for gross domestic purchases revised from 3.9% to 3.8%
Negative Revisions:
Residential fixed investment decline revised from 9.3% to 11.6%
Jobless claims for week of Aug. 18 revised from 322,000 to 325,000
Not all the news is positive, for sure. For example more people were added to the ranks of the unemployed. But even this is not all bad because:
There were 15 states and territories reporting an increase in initial jobless claims for the Aug. 18 week, while 38 reported a decrease.
California had the biggest decrease, 3,983, thanks to fewer layoffs in transportation, communications, and public utilities industries. Michigan reported the sharpest increase, 3,254, due to layoffs in the automobile industries.
Seeing these positive revisions should be uplifting people’s feelings regarding their economic position. But consumer confidence and other such indicators are going the other way. A lot about the economy is based on perceptions. Having a media that trumpets every plausible weakening of the market does not help. BigT
