Iraq: The Future
Looking to the future the Iraqi government is making some moves to better position their nascent government. Among the areas that were covered and explained in a story from AP was the ending of the UN mandate and restrictions on Iraqi sovereignty, the evolving role of the United States in Iraqi affairs, and a strengthened economic partnership between the Iraqis and American business interests.
Iraq’s government, seeking protection against foreign threats and internal coups, will offer the U.S. a long-term troop presence in Iraq in return for U.S. security guarantees as part of a strategic partnership, two Iraqi officials said Monday.
The proposal, described to The Associated Press by two senior Iraqi officials familiar with the issue, is one of the first indications that the United States and Iraq are beginning to explore what their relationship might look like once the U.S. significantly draws down its troop presence.
In Washington, President Bush’s adviser on the Iraqi war, Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute, confirmed the proposal, calling it “a set of principles from which to begin formal negotiations.”
As part of the package, the Iraqis want an end to the current U.N.-mandated multinational forces mission, and also an end to all U.N.-ordered restrictions on Iraq’s sovereignty.
The future success of Iraq depends on a number of issues. Can they, working in conjunction with us, provide security for their people? Can the disparate sectarian forces at least agree to live together with a minimum of violence? Can the government assert its authority or would it be better, like I have argued in the past, for Iraq to be more like a federation? And maybe most importantly of all, can the Iraqi economy rise up from the ashes of dictatorships and war?
A nation’s economy is the most important thing for continued success. Otherwise strong nations; nations that have a strong political system, a good infrastructure, a united populace, etc, won’t last for long if the economy doesn’t grow. If the Iraqi economy experiences a rebirth many of the problems it currently has will dissipate and so will some of ours.
One of the major things fueling Iraqi strife is the lack of opportunity in the country. Young men can get paid significantly more for joining the various terrorists/insurgent groups then they could get working a legitimate job. Even though this type of labor is diminishing in Iraq right now without a legitimate promise of a job there will be an increase in violence in the future. But if the Iraqi economy sprouts some wings and takes flight that threat will be greatly diminished.
Furthermore, a strong economy in Iraq will become a foil to its bellicose Eastern neighbor. Iran remains a major problem not only for regional stability but for worldwide stability as well. With an economically strong Iraq the nation would predictably become less inclined towards war and terrorist operations. With this front of destabilization dead Iran would lose a significant thoroughfare for its imperialist terrorism.
And who knows what a pro-Western economic powerhouse in Iraq would do for the region overall? It could work to give legitimacy to other pro-Western capitalistic democracies throughout the Middle East and the Arab world overall (Lebanon maybe).
This is why Iraq is so important for America’s foreign policy. It is a nation that is basically right dab in the middle of the biggest hot spot in the world. If we can secure it and help build a strong economy for that nation it will have a trickle down effect to its neighbors (hopefully).
The future for Iraq is not something that can easily be predicted. But the future can be easily be guessed at if Iraq is allowed to crumble. BigT
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