China’s Economy Gets a Little Deflated
Oops, China isn’t as close to us in terms of economy size as we thought. Using the new and improved, yet still statistically not perfect, method of purchasing power parity, the World Bank has adjusted China’s economy down a couple notches.
China’s economy represented about 14% of the world’s total production under the old measurement system. Now it is 9%. That is a drop of over 35% (the story says 40% but my numbers show 35.7%, AFP can’t do math all that well I guess).
America, on the other hand, went from 29% to 23%; a drop of a little over 20%. So instead of our economy being about 107% the size of China’s economy it is actually over 150% the size of China’s economy.
This news only bolsters my belief that we should not be worried about the economic “juggernaut” of China. China is going through a period of transition from a command economy to a hybrid between socialism and capitalism. As long as it still embraces some of the tenets of socialism it will not be a serious threat to America. It just won’t happen.
Anyways, here’s the story:
WASHINGTON (AFP) - The size of China’s economy is overestimated by some 40 percent based on most current measures, but is the world’s second largest, the World Bank said Monday.
In a report ranking the world’s economies, the World Bank said a more reliable method of estimation using “purchasing power parity” (PPP) shows a much smaller value than the traditional market value estimates which the Bank called “less reliable.”
The study carried out by the World Bank and other partners was “the most extensive and thorough effort” to measure the relative size of 146 economies using the PPP method which strips out the effect of exchange rates, a Bank statement said.
China participated in the survey for the first time and India for the first time since 1985.
“These results are more statistically reliable estimates of the size and price levels of both economies,” the Bank said.
“The previous, less reliable, methods led to estimates of their GDPs (gross domestic product) that were 40 percent larger than the results of the new, improved methods and benchmark.”
China still ranks as the world’s second largest economy with over nine percent of world production, but that compared with 14 percent under the old methodology.
India is the fifth largest with over four percent of the world total, up from two percent using market exchange rates.
In the study, the United States still has the world’s biggest economy with 23 percent of global output, but that is down from 29 percent using market rates.
Japan ranks third under the PPP method with seven percent of global output, lower than using market rates.
The study said the survey “should not be used as indicators of the under- or overvaluation of currencies.”
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