Archive for the ‘Economics’ Category

Have the Government Bail Out New Orleans and Fannie and Freddie and…

Wednesday, September 3rd, 2008

There’s a reason why I believe in economic freedom; free markets and free people. Read here and then I’ll tell you why.

New Orleans is still far from being able to withstand a 100-year storm — in other words, a storm that has a 1% chance of happening next year, a 10% chance in any given decade, and a 30% chance during the duration of a standard mortgage. An individual might accept these odds, but not a rational insurance company for any price most property owners would be willing to pay. Thus the city couldn’t have found a better time to rehearse its vulnerability — in the heat of a presidential campaign. For if the present New Orleans is to remain viable, it will be because federal money makes it so.

Just add it to the list. Final liability for more and more of life’s risks is being assumed by the federal government, i.e., taxpayers. Investment banks and hedge funds now aspire to be “too big to fail.” Washington has completed its monopolization of the mortgage business and the student loan business. Car companies in a financial bind? Congress is ready to become their lender of last resort too.

New Orleans is just one city. Miami, Houston and Long Island are all a typhoon away from losses greater than Katrina’s $140 billion. One-third of Katrina’s damages were covered by private insurance. In the event of a Hayward Fault earthquake of 7 or higher, San Francisco and vicinity would be thwacked with losses upwards of $165 billion — of which only 10% are insured. Guess who will pick up the tab? And why not. Perversely, all such commitments seem a drop in the bucket compared to $85 trillion in unfunded Medicare liability.

No matter what, there are costs. Sometimes it doesn’t make sense to build a city in a certain area. Sometimes it doesn’t make sense to create a new financial instrument. But how are we suppose to know?

By failure. Capitalism’s sledgehammer destroys bad decisions quickly and mercilessly. And we need that because continuing to waste good resources on bad decisions is a recipe for economic disaster. The quicker we find out that we made a bad move (building a home in a notorious hurricane path or handing out loans without any background check and then repackaging said loans to make them look like top rated debt) the quicker we can fix things.

But that wouldn’t be “fair” or “compassionate.” Actually, in my opinion, bailing people out is the meanest thing you can do to them. All you are doing is setting them up for continued failure. That’s what our activist and progressive federal government has done with the big banks and that is what it does with cities struck by a natural disaster. Eventually this golden goose of compassionate idiocy will end because our benighted federal government won’t have the money to let people continue to make bad decisions.

BigT

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American GDP Grows at 3.3% Last Quarter

Thursday, August 28th, 2008

3.3% isn’t bad for a developed country. Not bad at all actually. But forecasts predict some more rough patches ahead.

The economy pulled out of a dangerous rough patch in the spring, thanks largely to strong exports, but the rebound isn’t expected to last. Economic slowdowns overseas could make exports tail off just as Americans are hunkering down after the bracing impact of rebate checks wanes, plunging the country into another rut later this year.

“There will be heavy sledding for the U.S. economy during the next couple of quarters,” predicted Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Bank of America’s Investment Strategies Group.

Gross domestic product, or GDP, grew at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the April-June quarter, its fastest pace in nearly a year, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The revised reading was much better than the government’s initial estimate of a 1.9 percent pace and exceeded economists’ expectations for a 2.7 percent growth rate.

BigT

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The Real Census Story – Health Care Picture

Wednesday, August 27th, 2008

Here’s some positive economic news.

Orders for durable goods, items meant to last three years or more, rose strongly last month after an upwardly revised 1.3% gain in June, the Commerce Department said. Analysts were expecting durables orders to remain unchanged from the previous month.

Transportation orders rose 3.1% in July, largest gain since February, on a 28% rise in civilian aircraft orders. That followed a 21.3% drop in aircraft orders in June.

Even when volatile transportation orders were stripped out, demand for durables rose 0.7%. Analysts had expected a 0.5% drop in durables orders excluding transportation.

Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, seen as a barometer of business spending, jumped 2.6%, steepest gain since April. Analysts were expecting that category to decline by 0.1%.

Why these numbers are important is because this means that people think that the economy is going to pick up in the near future – why else buy something that is going to last a couple of years if you don’t think you’re going to be able to pay for it or make money off of it?

Here are the numbers for last year.

Census found that 45.7 million people, or 15.3% of the population, were uninsured in 2007, down from 47 million or so in 2006. While total enrollment in private insurance remained stable — due to population growth — it eroded slightly in percentage terms, continuing a downward trend. The growth in coverage was mostly concentrated in public programs — partially due to an aging population shifting to Medicare, but especially in Medicaid. Democrats are already claiming vindication of their post-2008 priority of moving even more people onto the federal balance sheet.

Yet the Medicaid increase isn’t exactly a shocking revelation. Each year, a significant portion of the uninsured qualifies for government assistance but hasn’t signed up. In spite of 2007′s uptick, 24.5% still earned under $25,000 and are probably eligible for help. Some 22% made over $50,000, which is hardly rich, but enough to afford coverage in most states. Meanwhile, about 54% are between the ages of 18 and 34, and many of them voluntarily choose (risky as it may be) to forgo coverage. In other words, the latest batch of data shows, again, that the policy problem of the uninsured isn’t as large as election-year opportunism would have it.

What causes this?

Most of the gaps in coverage owe to the way the tax code creates problems for the insured while shortchanging everyone else. People who are covered through their employers — 59.3% in 2007 — pay no taxes on the value of the benefit, encouraging them to launder their health dollars through third-party insurers while burdening business with increasing medical costs. Meanwhile, the size of the subsidies are smaller for lower-wage workers — who typically have less generous plans as part of their compensation — and nonexistent for individuals.

In a lot of ways, the new figures probably underestimate the effects of the tax code distortions. The Census counts people who were insured for only part of the year as “insured.” But other studies have shown that the number that are uninsured at some point during prior years — usually because their coverage lapsed while switching jobs — reaches as high as 69 million. Restoring the tax parity of health dollars would allow individuals to buy policies themselves, rather than rely on their employers, and take those policies with them wherever they work. It would increase access and affordability for everyone.

Government intervention strikes again!

BigT

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